Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 17.877675 20.585239 23.768642 27.843042 33.002152 39.435627 48.263164
2025-02-23 14.443314 17.661180 21.807224 27.713305 36.223083 48.601266 69.203185
2025-03-02 12.507660 15.880082 20.487975 27.544418 38.701342 56.989871 92.925101
2025-03-09 11.302203 14.782423 19.767803 27.878682 41.792308 67.297441 126.737773
2025-03-16 10.069942 13.437706 18.420755 26.881469 42.289472 73.087083 155.992175
2025-03-23 9.294835 12.644806 17.759954 26.822027 44.372314 82.890000 205.770592
2025-03-30 8.418024 11.594956 16.546064 25.568123 43.789283 86.531810 242.034758
2025-04-06 7.633522 10.611362 15.323387 24.094413 42.390433 87.643626 271.753166
2025-04-13 7.020229 9.843554 14.375939 22.986284 41.521873 89.869453 311.524510
2025-04-20 7.143953 10.253483 15.445347 25.884585 50.490066 125.959125 653.323548
2025-04-27 6.944255 10.112341 15.534242 26.842711 55.172208 152.893130 1151.577001
2025-05-04 6.483216 9.496610 14.706021 25.737365 54.096084 157.152659 1440.273202
2025-05-11 6.290869 9.341587 14.741377 26.594924 59.042378 193.750416 3328.023386
2025-05-18 5.996948 8.989256 14.373013 26.495360 61.227767 221.081466 7564.466091
2025-05-25 5.726063 8.655993 14.006013 26.335868 63.207406 251.165146 24484.755232
2025-06-01 5.530364 8.441202 13.847435 26.649262 66.941778 300.864318 974014.681664
2025-06-08 5.226735 8.011699 13.223147 25.714176 65.956500 314.647548 NaN
2025-06-15 5.033516 7.771214 12.960088 25.658409 68.269801 363.515211 NaN
2025-06-22 4.751163 7.351175 12.298121 24.481190 65.880553 363.465853 NaN
2025-06-29 4.468618 6.918237 11.584119 23.095607 62.353019 347.546853 NaN
2025-07-06 4.234948 6.566297 11.018790 22.052272 60.012686 343.152666 NaN
2025-07-13 4.343530 6.856606 11.813532 24.778444 74.653632 613.750536 NaN
2025-07-20 4.288391 6.832770 11.936826 25.677815 81.954849 859.481412 NaN